Sovereign Default and International Trade

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-01-30 DOI:10.1057/s41308-023-00230-x

Charles Serfaty

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Evidence suggests that sovereign defaults disrupt international trade. As a consequence, countries that are more open have more to lose from a sovereign default and are less inclined to renege on their debt. In turn, lenders should trust more open countries and charge them with lower interest rate. As a consequence of those lower rates, the country should also borrow more debt as it gets more open. This paper formalizes this idea in a sovereign debt model á la (Eaton and Gersovitz in Rev Econ Stud 48(2):289–309, 1981), proves these theoretical relations and quantifies them in a calibrated model. This paper also provides evidence suggesting a causal relationship between trade and debt, using gravitational instrumental variables from Feyrer (Am Econ J Appl Econ 11(4):1–35, 2019) as a source for exogenous variation in trade openness. The results suggest that, when imports-to-GDP ratio increases by 1%, debt-to-GDP ratio also increases by 1%, and default risks do not increase. These last results are consistent with the quantitative results from the calibrated model.

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主权违约与国际贸易

有证据表明，主权违约会扰乱国际贸易。因此，开放程度较高的国家在主权违约中损失更大，也更不愿意赖账。反过来，贷款人应该信任更开放的国家，并向其收取更低的利率。由于利率较低，开放程度越高的国家也应该借到更多的债务。本文将这一观点正式纳入主权债务模型（Eaton 和 Gersovitz 在 Rev Econ Stud 48(2):289-309, 1981），证明了这些理论关系，并在校准模型中将其量化。本文还利用费雷尔（Am Econ J Appl Econ 11(4):1-35, 2019）的引力工具变量作为贸易开放度外生变化的来源，提供了贸易与债务之间存在因果关系的证据。结果表明，当进口与国内生产总值的比率增加 1%时，债务与国内生产总值的比率也会增加 1%，而违约风险不会增加。最后这些结果与校准模型的定量结果一致。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein. Comments “The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review “To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF