Crude Oil Price Bubble Identification and Risk Assessment From Different Spot Markets: Establishing a Sustainable Energy Policy

Q3 Environmental Science
Jiayue Wang, Kun Ma, Ling Zhang, Jinghong Wei, Jianzhong Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world’s major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.
从不同现货市场识别原油价格泡沫并进行风险评估:建立可持续能源政策
原油作为社会发展的战略能源,近年来价格大幅波动,对经济的可持续发展、生态环境和能源安全产生了影响。本文利用 2003 年 1 月至 2023 年 3 月的每周原油价格数据,采用 SADF 和 GSADF 方法研究了不同市场的价格泡沫,通过比较 BSADF 序列和临界值序列确定了价格泡沫的持续时间,利用已建立的综合指标评估了不同市场的价格泡沫风险,并从原油进口国和出口国的角度探讨了可持续能源政策。研究结果表明,全球主要原油市场都存在泡沫,不同市场的泡沫起源和终止存在联系和差异。不同原油市场的价格泡沫风险差异较大,且具有明显的地域特征,欧佩克、阿曼、迪拜等市场风险较高,WTI、布伦特、大庆等市场风险较低。本文从能源进口国和出口国的角度提出了可持续能源政策。这对于提高各国应对原油价格泡沫风险的能力,确保经济发展、生态环境和能源安全的可持续性具有重要意义。
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来源期刊
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
25
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