Kajian Alokasi Global Carbon Budget kepada National Carbon Budget Indonesia

Abstract

Climate change and global warming are directly linked to the rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere, a significant byproduct of various human activities, particularly the combustion of fossil fuels. To regulate Earth's surface temperature within specified limits, the concept of a carbon budget is introduced. This budget represents the maximum cumulative carbon emissions that can be emitted to the atmosphere before the earth’s global temperature exceeds some particular temperature levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6), maintaining a temperature increase within 1,5 to 2°C requires adhering to a global carbon budget (GCB) of approximately 500 to 1.350 GtCO2 (at a 50% likelihood level). To determine the national carbon budget (NCB) for Indonesia, various allocation methods, including egalitarian, grandfathering, weighted average, and per capita convergence approaches, are applied. At a 50% likelihood level to restrict temperature rise to 1.5°C, Indonesia's NCB at the beginning of 2022 falls within the range of 14.28 to 20.55 GtCO2. These values for the carbon budget can serve as a valuable tool for assessing the climate change mitigation targets outlined in Indonesia's enhanced nationally determined contribution (E-NDC).