SPATIOTEMPORAL PROJECTIONS OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES OVER ALGERIA USING CMIP6-GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS

Abstract

We assess in this paper the spatiotemporal projections of extreme temperature indices over Algeria derived from the adjusted multi-model ensemble mean (MME) data derived from 11 daily historical simulations of CMIP6-GCMs models that participated in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The projected spatial patterns of 12 extreme temperature indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are assessed for two future time periods: the mid-future 2041–2070 and the far future 2071–2100, relative to the baseline period 1985–2014 and under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: low emission SSP1-2.6; medium emission SSP2-4.5 and high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). The selected climate indices reflect the intensity (TXx, TNx, TXn, TNn and DTR), frequency (TX90p and TN10p) and duration (WSDI, SU, CSDI, TR and FD) of the extreme thermal events. The MME Projections show a global heightened warming over Algeria. Future Climate features depict a continuous increase in the occurrence of hot days by the end of the century reaching 60% for SSP5-8.5 and an amplification of the intensity of the extreme temperature of about 6∘C for SSP5-8.5 and an extension of the heat wave duration period of about 80 days in the north and 100 days in the south of the country compared to the historical period. However, the study shows a projected simultaneous decline in the cold spell duration of 7 days and in the frost days reaching 25 days. A stabilization of the upsurge trend is remarkably observed for most indices under SSP1-2.6 starting from the 2050s. The future changes depicted in this study should help to assess the distribution of the impacts across different regions of Algeria in order to enhance resilience, establish the appropriate adaptation responses and improve disaster preparedness.