Exploring the landscape pattern change analysis for the transboundary Nyungwe-Kibira Forest (2000–2019): a spatially explicit assessment

Abstract

Ensuring the protection and restoration of forest ecosystems is vital to maintaining and restoring ecological balance in deforested or degraded landscapes. However, sustainable development faces challenges from high human impacts on natural forest ecosystems, insufficient advanced conservation measures, and limited engagement of local communities in developing nations. The aim of this study was to explore the utility of spatial remote sensing datasets in examining the landscape pattern changes within the transboundary Nyungwe-Kibira Forest from 2000 to 2019. This aimed to emphasize the necessity of understanding the intricate dynamics of this ecosystem and its susceptibility to human activities in order to bolster diverse restoration initiatives throughout the region.The landscape pattern change in the Nyungwe-Kibira between 2000 and 2019 was analysed using high-resolution Landsat data. This analysis encompassed an evaluation of the dynamics of changes in built-up, cropland, and forest areas within the region. Especially, primary data derived from the Landsat dataset and secondary data from reports such as the Outlook Report were employed to elucidate the ongoing landscape transformation within and surrounding the transboundary forest.The analysis revealed a net change of +62.3% and +18.07% in built-up and cropland areas, resulting in a gross change of 14,133 ha and 6,322 ha in built-up and cropland areas, respectively. Furthermore, the forest experienced an overall gain of 9.11%, corresponding to a net loss of 6.92% due to deforestation, estimated at -14,764 ha. The analysis also indicated that built-up areas accounted for approximately 33.02% of the net forest loss, primarily affecting the northern edge of the Rwanda region, while cropland expansion contributed to a net loss of forest (-9.48%), predominantly impacting the southeast portion of the forest in Burundi. Additionally, the forest is predicted to decrease by 0.74% by 2030, with current findings showing aggregated forest and cropland at 66% and 7%, dissected rangeland at 24%, and created built-up areas at 3%. The findings indicate that the Nyungwe-Kibira Forest is undergoing notable transformations, highlighting the necessity of land-based projects and mitigation plans to facilitate the restoration of the forest from its historical changes. Without proactive measures, an ongoing decrease in forest area by 2030 is anticipated.