Understanding vehicle demand dynamics in Indian road transport: A qualitative framework

Abstract

The demand for vehicles in India is on a continuous rise, primarily attributed to increasing income levels. The Indian government has initiated steps to decarbonize the transport sector, offering incentives for alternate vehicles' adoption. This study introduces a qualitative framework, employing a causal structure to comprehend the dynamics of vehicle demand. The framework takes into account critical feedback loops that influence the demand for alternate vehicles and, consequently, the overall vehicle demand. The causal loop diagram for vehicle demand encompasses five key domains: socio-economic development, infrastructure development, environmental awareness, fuel supply market and alternate vehicle technology. Notably, economic activity, urban sprawl, vehicle demand, alternate vehicle technology improvement, and the sustainability and fuel constraints linked with internal combustion engine vehicles emerge as the critical aspects governing the dynamics of the model. The leverage and intervention points influencing the vehicle demand are also identified. Further, based on the evolving interaction of the various reinforcing and balancing loops, this work identifies three distinct phases of the evolution of vehicle demand dynamics in India, namely, the emerging phase (2020–2040), the growth phase (2040–2060) and the stagnation phase (2060–2080). The paper discusses the crucial features of these phases.