Small power strategies under great power competition

Abstract

This article presents a theoretical argument, defined as tension theory, to explain how the strategies of small powers during eras of great power competition are influenced by (i) the level of tensions between the great powers, and (ii) the availability of a great power ally. The explanatory power of tension theory will be demonstrated through a re-examination of Norwegian, Swedish, and Finnish diplomatic history from the early Cold War era. The findings strongly suggest that small powers desire low tensions between the great powers as this provides them with the opportunity to position themselves as neutral bridgebuilders to advance their vital and value interests. During periods marked by high tensions, which turn the relations between the great powers into a zero-sum competition, vital and value interests become of secondary importance to survival interest for small powers and force them to integrate with a protective great power to deter the threatening great power. In the absence of a protective great power during periods marked by high tensions, a small power will instead be forced to accommodate the threatening great power and screen itself from the latter’s adversaries.