MODEL REGRESI LINIER PENGARUH STANDAR TEKNIS JALAN TERHADAP KECELAKAAN LALU LINTAS PADA JALAN PROVINSI (STUDI KASUS : RUAS JALAN PEMALANG – PURBALINGGA)

Iqbal Maulana, Rachmat Mudiyono, Abdul Rochim
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Abstract

In the 2016-2021, there were 12 accidents with 22 deaths and 107 injuries on the Pemalang – Purbalingga road section. One of the factors causing accidents is the lack of attention to infrastructure that meets safety aspects. Even though the number of accidents caused by infrastructure is relatively small when compared to the human error (human) and vehicle (facility) factors, serious attention must still be paid. Traffic accidents caused by a lack of road infrastructure are generally caused by an inaccurate road geometric design, poor road surface conditions, lack of visibility and so on. Therefore the research aims to find accident-prone locations, the causes of accidents from the standard values of road technical requirements and accident regression models. The results of this study. Segments that are categorized as accident-prone locations are STA 32+000, 34+000, 36+000, 47+000 and 48+000. Substandard grades will be the cause of traffic accidents based on road technical requirements. The regression model that can be used to predict the number of accidents on provincial roads according to the variables examined in this study is: Y = -2.618 + 0.049 Grade – 0.019 X Slope – 0.008 H Curv – 0.417 V Curv + 0.264 road width + 0.081 condition IRI roads + 0.014 PCI Road Conditions
道路技术标准对省道交通事故影响的线性回归模型(案例研究:彭马浪--珀巴陵加路段)
2016-2021 年间,白马浪 - 珀巴陵加路段共发生 12 起事故,造成 22 人死亡,107 人受伤。造成事故的因素之一是缺乏对符合安全要求的基础设施的关注。尽管与人为失误(人)和车辆(设施)因素相比,基础设施造成的事故数量相对较少,但仍必须予以高度重视。道路基础设施不足导致的交通事故一般是由于道路几何设计不准确、路面状况差、能见度低等原因造成的。因此,本研究旨在从道路技术要求的标准值和事故回归模型中寻找事故多发地点、事故原因。研究结果被列为事故多发点的路段有 STA 32+000、34+000、36+000、47+000 和 48+000。根据道路技术要求,等级不达标将成为交通事故的原因。根据本研究考察的变量,可用于预测省道交通事故数量的回归模型为Y = -2.618 + 0.049 等级 - 0.019 X 斜坡 - 0.008 H 弯道 - 0.417 V 弯道 + 0.264 路宽 + 0.081 IRI 道路条件 + 0.014 PCI 道路条件
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