Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Geography, Environment, Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI:10.24057/2071-9388-2023-2703

A. A. Romanovskaya

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Abstract

Increased number of extreme weather events is one of the most serious hazards of climate change over the territory of Russia. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of the number of extreme weather events that caused social and economic damage in the country and its regions. This paper analyzes changes in the total number of events with damage (meteorological for the period 1991-2019 and agrometeorological – for 2004-2019), disaggregated by their types and by regions. The Mann-Kendall test is applied to detect statistical significance (0.05 level of significance, normal distribution). The results show an increase in the number of meteorological extreme events with damage for 1990-2019 in Russia from 130 to 257 events per year on average for the 1990s and 2010s, respectively, while the proportion of events with damage in relation to the total number of extreme events decreased over this period. We found statistically significant trends only for a few types of extreme events: hot and cold temperature, strong wind, heavy rain and droughts (increase by 0.9, 9.4, 11.4, 25.9 and 13.3 events/10 years, respectively). Number of heavy rain precipitation events is the only unidirectional stable growth trend. Unusual increasing trend in cold extreme events with damage in Russia can be attributed to the greater damage to the economy and population from cold extremes than hot ones. The regional distribution of trends across the territory of the Russian Federation is heterogeneous. However, significant changes in the number of extreme events of strong winds, heavy rains and soil drought by regions are statistically positive and observed mostly in some southern and central regions of European part and the Western Siberia. The development of adaptation plans to the negative effects of climate change is a first priority for these regions. A system for monitoring economic and non-economic damage from extreme events must be developed in Russia.

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1991-2019 年期间俄罗斯及其各地区造成社会经济损失的极端天气事件趋势

极端天气事件增多是气候变化对俄罗斯领土造成的最严重危害之一。然而，目前还缺乏对在俄罗斯及其地区造成社会和经济损失的极端天气事件数量的全面分析。本文分析了造成损失的事件总数的变化（1991-2019 年为气象事件，2004-2019 年为农业气象事件），并按事件类型和地区进行了分类。采用 Mann-Kendall 检验来检测统计显著性（显著性水平为 0.05，正态分布）。结果显示，1990-2019 年期间，俄罗斯造成损失的气象极端事件数量有所增加，1990 年代和 2010 年代平均每年分别为 130 起和 257 起，而在此期间，造成损失的事件占极端事件总数的比例有所下降。我们发现，只有几类极端事件有明显的统计趋势：高温和低温、强风、暴雨和干旱（分别增加了 0.9、9.4、11.4、25.9 和 13.3 次/10 年）。暴雨降水事件数是唯一单向稳定增长的趋势。在俄罗斯，造成损失的低温极端事件呈不寻常的增长趋势，这是因为低温极端事件对经济和人口造成的损失比高温极端事件更大。在俄罗斯联邦境内，各地区的趋势分布不尽相同。然而，各地区强风、暴雨和土壤干旱极端事件数量的重大变化在统计上是积极的，并且主要出现在欧洲部分和西西伯利亚西部的一些南部和中部地区。制定适应气候变化负面影响的计划是这些地区的首要任务。俄罗斯必须建立一个监测极端事件造成的经济和非经济损失的系统。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geography, Environment, Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is founded by the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, The Russian Geographical Society and by the Institute of Geography of RAS. It is the official journal of Russian Geographical Society, and a fully open access journal. Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” publishes original, innovative, interdisciplinary and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment scientific field. This goal covers a broad spectrum of scientific research areas (physical-, social-, economic-, cultural geography, environmental sciences and sustainable development) and also considers contemporary and widely used research methods, such as geoinformatics, cartography, remote sensing (including from space), geophysics, geochemistry, etc. “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is the only original English-language journal in the field of geography and environmental sciences published in Russia. It is supposed to be an outlet from the Russian-speaking countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the Russian-speaking countries regarding environmental and Earth sciences, geography and sustainability. The main sections of the journal are the theory of geography and ecology, the theory of sustainable development, use of natural resources, natural resources assessment, global and regional changes of environment and climate, social-economical geography, ecological regional planning, sustainable regional development, applied aspects of geography and ecology, geoinformatics and ecological cartography, ecological problems of oil and gas sector, nature conservations, health and environment, and education for sustainable development. Articles are freely available to both subscribers and the wider public with permitted reuse.