A Review of Uncertainties in Power Systems—Modeling, Impact, and Mitigation

Designs Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI:10.3390/designs8010010
Hongji Hu, S. Yu, Hieu Trinh
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Abstract

A comprehensive review of uncertainties in power systems, covering modeling, impact, and mitigation, is essential to understand and manage the challenges faced by the electric grid. Uncertainties in power systems can arise from various sources and can have significant implications for grid reliability, stability, and economic efficiency. Australia, susceptible to extreme weather such as wildfires and heavy rainfall, faces vulnerabilities in its power network assets. The decentralized distribution of population centers poses economic challenges in supplying power to remote areas, which is a crucial consideration for the emerging technologies emphasized in this paper. In addition, the evolution of modern power grids, facilitated by deploying the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), has also brought new challenges to the system due to the risk of cyber-attacks via communication links. However, the existing literature lacks a comprehensive review and analysis of uncertainties in modern power systems, encompassing uncertainties related to weather events, cyber-attacks, and asset management, as well as the advantages and limitations of various mitigation approaches. To fill this void, this review covers a broad spectrum of uncertainties considering their impacts on the power system and explores conventional robust control as well as modern probabilistic and data-driven approaches for modeling and correlating the uncertainty events to the state of the grid for optimal decision making. This article also investigates the development of robust and scenario-based operations, control technologies for microgrids (MGs) and energy storage systems (ESSs), and demand-side frequency control ancillary service (D-FCAS) and reserve provision for frequency regulation to ensure a design of uncertainty-tolerance power system. This review delves into the trade-offs linked with the implementation of mitigation strategies, such as reliability, computational speed, and economic efficiency. It also explores how these strategies may influence the planning and operation of future power grids.
电力系统中的不确定性--建模、影响和缓解回顾
全面审查电力系统中的不确定性,包括建模、影响和缓解,对于了解和管理电网所面临的挑战至关重要。电力系统中的不确定性可能来自多个方面,并对电网的可靠性、稳定性和经济效益产生重大影响。澳大利亚易受野火和暴雨等极端天气的影响,其电网资产也面临着脆弱性。人口中心的分散分布为向偏远地区供电带来了经济挑战,这也是本文所强调的新兴技术的一个重要考虑因素。此外,由于部署了先进的计量基础设施 (AMI),现代电网的发展也给系统带来了新的挑战,因为存在通过通信链路进行网络攻击的风险。然而,现有文献缺乏对现代电力系统不确定性的全面回顾和分析,包括与天气事件、网络攻击和资产管理相关的不确定性,以及各种缓解方法的优势和局限性。为了填补这一空白,本综述涵盖了广泛的不确定性因素,考虑了它们对电力系统的影响,并探讨了传统的鲁棒控制以及现代的概率和数据驱动方法,用于建模和将不确定性事件与电网状态相关联,以实现最优决策。本文还研究了鲁棒和基于情景的操作、微电网 (MG) 和储能系统 (ESS) 控制技术、需求侧频率控制辅助服务 (D-FCAS) 以及频率调节储备供应的发展,以确保设计出具有不确定性容限的电力系统。本综述深入探讨了与实施缓解策略相关的权衡问题,如可靠性、计算速度和经济效益。它还探讨了这些策略如何影响未来电网的规划和运行。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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