Political Polarization and Internal Conflict: A Cross-National Analysis Using Popular Support and Government Cohesion as Proxies

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues Pub Date : 2024-01-20 DOI:10.32479/ijefi.15368

Brandon Parsons

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Abstract

The study uses proxies of political polarization, popular support of the government, and government cohesion, to examine its role in explaining internal conflict and the specific types of political violence and civil disorder. The study uses panel data from 135 countries from 1990 to 2021. The research uses two econometric models, Quantile via Moments, to examine the effects of popular support and government cohesion across the distribution of internal conflict, and two-way fixed effects with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors. The two models account for heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional dependence, and autocorrelation. The study finds popular support of the government and its cohesion robustly explain internal conflict and its specific forms of political violence and civil disorder. The research also finds political polarization that reduces popular support and government cohesion influences internal conflict regardless of regime type. The variables are significant from autocratic to democratic, suggesting political polarization that reduces popular support and government cohesion can negatively affect internal conflict levels irrespective of regime. Finally, the study finds the internet has a minor mitigating impact on internal conflict, while its interaction with popular support and government cohesion slightly exacerbates internal conflict.

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政治极化与内部冲突：以民众支持率和政府凝聚力为代用指标的跨国分析

本研究使用政治两极分化、民众对政府的支持以及政府凝聚力等代用指标，考察其在解释内部冲突以及政治暴力和内乱的具体类型方面所起的作用。研究使用了 135 个国家从 1990 年到 2021 年的面板数据。研究使用了两个计量经济学模型，即通过矩量检验民众支持和政府凝聚力在内部冲突分布中的影响，以及使用 Driscoll 和 Kraay 标准误差的双向固定效应模型。这两个模型考虑了异方差、横截面依赖性和自相关性。研究发现，民众对政府的支持及其凝聚力可以有力地解释内部冲突及其政治暴力和内乱的具体形式。研究还发现，政治两极分化会降低民众支持率和政府凝聚力，从而影响国内冲突，而与政权类型无关。从专制到民主，这些变量都具有显著性，这表明减少民众支持和政府凝聚力的政治极化会对国内冲突水平产生负面影响，而与政权类型无关。最后，研究发现，互联网对内部冲突的缓解作用较小，而其与民众支持和政府凝聚力的相互作用则会轻微加剧内部冲突。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues

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期刊介绍： International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues (IJEFI) is the international academic journal, and is a double-blind, peer-reviewed academic journal publishing high quality conceptual and measure development articles in the areas of economics, finance and related disciplines. The journal has a worldwide audience. The journal''s goal is to stimulate the development of economics, finance and related disciplines theory worldwide by publishing interesting articles in a highly readable format. The journal is published Bimonthly (6 issues per year) and covers a wide variety of topics including (but not limited to): Macroeconomcis International Economics Econometrics Business Economics Growth and Development Regional Economics Tourism Economics International Trade Finance International Finance Macroeconomic Aspects of Finance General Financial Markets Financial Institutions Behavioral Finance Public Finance Asset Pricing Financial Management Options and Futures Taxation, Subsidies and Revenue Corporate Finance and Governance Money and Banking Markets and Institutions of Emerging Markets Public Economics and Public Policy Financial Economics Applied Financial Econometrics Financial Risk Analysis Risk Management Portfolio Management Financial Econometrics.