Borders, states, and armed conflicts in Europe and Northeast Asia since 1945: The moral hazard of great-power encroachments

Mark Kramer
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Abstract

This article discusses the significance of international borders in Europe and Northeast Asia during the Cold War (1945–1989) and after. Using the concept of ‘moral hazard’, the article examines what happens when great powers frequently violate the borders of neighboring countries without suffering adverse repercussions. Norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity are viable only if large countries are willing to uphold them most of the time. The Soviet Union used or threatened to use military force against East European countries on numerous occasions (1953, 1956, 1968, and 1980–1981) with impunity. The Russian Federation adopted a broadly similar policy toward neighboring countries that had been republics of the Soviet Union until 1991. Russian forces in Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Ukraine served as instruments of Russian hegemony in those countries. Until 2014, Western governments made little or no effort to deter or counter Russian military encroachments in neighboring republics. By the principle of moral hazard, leaders in the Kremlin came to believe that they could act with a free hand in the former USSR.
1945 年以来欧洲和东北亚的边界、国家和武装冲突:大国蚕食的道德风险
本文讨论了冷战期间(1945-1989 年)及之后国际边界在欧洲和东北亚的重要性。文章利用 "道德风险 "的概念,探讨了当大国频繁侵犯邻国边界而又不遭受负面影响时会发生什么。只有当大国在大多数情况下都愿意维护主权和领土完整准则时,这些准则才是可行的。苏联曾多次(1953 年、1956 年、1968 年和 1980-1981 年)对东欧国家使用或威胁使用军事力量,却没有受到任何惩罚。俄罗斯联邦对 1991 年前一直是苏联加盟共和国的邻国也采取了大致相同的政策。驻扎在格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦、塔吉克斯坦、白俄罗斯和乌克兰的俄罗斯军队是俄罗斯在这些国家推行霸权的工具。直到 2014 年,西方政府几乎没有做出任何努力来阻止或反击俄罗斯对邻国共和国的军事侵犯。根据道德风险原则,克里姆林宫的领导人开始相信他们可以在前苏联放手行动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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