Development and validation of multicentre study on novel Artificial Intelligence-based Cardiovascular Risk Score (AICVD).

Abstract

Objective: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are one of the most prevalent diseases in India amounting for nearly 30% of total deaths. A dearth of research on CVD risk scores in Indian population, limited performance of conventional risk scores and inability to reproduce the initial accuracies in randomised clinical trials has led to this study on large-scale patient data. The objective is to develop an Artificial Intelligence-based Risk Score (AICVD) to predict CVD event (eg, acute myocardial infarction/acute coronary syndrome) in the next 10 years and compare the model with the Framingham Heart Risk Score (FHRS) and QRisk3.

Methods: Our study included 31 599 participants aged 18-91 years from 2009 to 2018 in six Apollo Hospitals in India. A multistep risk factors selection process using Spearman correlation coefficient and propensity score matching yielded 21 risk factors. A deep learning hazards model was built on risk factors to predict event occurrence (classification) and time to event (hazards model) using multilayered neural network. Further, the model was validated with independent retrospective cohorts of participants from India and the Netherlands and compared with FHRS and QRisk3.

Results: The deep learning hazards model had a good performance (area under the curve (AUC) 0.853). Validation and comparative results showed AUCs between 0.84 and 0.92 with better positive likelihood ratio (AICVD -6.16 to FHRS -2.24 and QRisk3 -1.16) and accuracy (AICVD -80.15% to FHRS 59.71% and QRisk3 51.57%). In the Netherlands cohort, AICVD also outperformed the Framingham Heart Risk Model (AUC -0.737 vs 0.707).

Conclusions: This study concludes that the novel AI-based CVD Risk Score has a higher predictive performance for cardiac events than conventional risk scores in Indian population.

Trial registration number: CTRI/2019/07/020471.