Bayesian Reliability Analysis of the Enhanced Multimission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator

IF 1.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE
Chung H. Lee, Thierry Caillat, S. Pinkowski
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) have been used as power sources for several space missions, including the multimission RTG (MMRTG) in NASA’s recent Mars Curiosity and Perseverance rovers. The enhanced MMRTG (eMMRTG) design is an MMRTG retrofitted with advanced skutterudite thermoelectric couples to improve efficiency and power output over time. The eMMRTG’s predicted reliability over the mission duration is influenced by the uncertainty in the physics parameters governing its performance. We use a Bayesian approach to account for two types of uncertainty: epistemic and aleatory. The reliability analysis has two steps: 1) uncertainty quantification from experimental data for key physics parameters, and 2) uncertainty propagation through a computational RTG life performance prediction. In particular, we use hierarchical models to separate specimen-to-specimen uncertainty and also to model the separate manufacturing batches of thermoelectric couples loaded into the eMMRTG. We use a secondary probability method to predict reliability with epistemic uncertainty intervals for the eMMRTG system at 10,000 h for which recent data are available. We show how reliability and uncertainty intervals depend on hypothetical power requirements at 10,000 h. The approach is generally applicable when experimental data and computer simulation are used to predict the reliability of a new technology.
增强型多任务放射性同位素热电发生器的贝叶斯可靠性分析
放射性同位素热电发电机(RTG)已被用作多项太空任务的电源,包括美国国家航空航天局(NASA)最近在 "好奇号 "和 "勇气号 "火星车上使用的多任务 RTG(MMRTG)。增强型 MMRTG(eMMRTG)设计是在 MMRTG 上加装先进的矽卡岩热电耦合器,以提高效率和功率输出。eMMRTG 在整个任务期间的预测可靠性受到影响其性能的物理参数的不确定性的影响。我们采用贝叶斯方法来考虑两类不确定性:认识不确定性和预知不确定性。可靠性分析分为两个步骤:1) 根据关键物理参数的实验数据进行不确定性量化,以及 2) 通过计算 RTG 寿命性能预测进行不确定性传播。特别是,我们使用分层模型来分离试样与试样之间的不确定性,并对装入 eMMRTG 的热电偶的不同制造批次进行建模。我们使用二次概率法预测 eMMRTG 系统在 10,000 小时内的可靠性和认识不确定性区间,并提供了最新数据。我们展示了可靠性和不确定性区间如何取决于 10,000 小时的假设功率要求。这种方法一般适用于使用实验数据和计算机模拟来预测新技术的可靠性。
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来源期刊
Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets
Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets 工程技术-工程:宇航
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
18.80%
发文量
185
审稿时长
4.5 months
期刊介绍: This Journal, that started it all back in 1963, is devoted to the advancement of the science and technology of astronautics and aeronautics through the dissemination of original archival research papers disclosing new theoretical developments and/or experimental result. The topics include aeroacoustics, aerodynamics, combustion, fundamentals of propulsion, fluid mechanics and reacting flows, fundamental aspects of the aerospace environment, hydrodynamics, lasers and associated phenomena, plasmas, research instrumentation and facilities, structural mechanics and materials, optimization, and thermomechanics and thermochemistry. Papers also are sought which review in an intensive manner the results of recent research developments on any of the topics listed above.
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