Predicting failure times of coherent systems

IF 1.9 4区管理学 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Naval Research Logistics Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI:10.1002/nav.22169

Jorge Navarro, Antonio Arriaza, Alfonso Suárez-Llorens

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The article is focused on studying how to predict the failure times of coherent systems from the early failure times of their components. Both the cases of independent and dependent components are considered by assuming that they are identically distributed (homogeneous components). The heterogeneous components' case can be addressed similarly but more complexly. The present study is for non-repairable systems, but the information obtained could be used to decide if a maintenance action should be carried out at time

t $$ t $$

. Different cases are considered regarding the information available at time

t $$ t $$

. We use quantile regression techniques to predict the system failure times and to provide prediction intervals. The theoretical results are applied to specific system structures in some illustrative examples.

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预测相干系统的故障时间

文章的重点是研究如何从组件的早期失效时间预测连贯系统的失效时间。通过假设独立组件和从属组件是同分布的（同质组件），考虑了这两种情况。异质组件的情况也可以类似处理，但更为复杂。本研究针对的是不可修复的系统，但所获得的信息可用于决定是否应在 t$$ t $$ 时间采取维护行动。我们考虑了时间 t$$ t $$ 可用信息的不同情况。我们使用量子回归技术来预测系统故障时间，并提供预测区间。在一些示例中，我们将理论结果应用于特定的系统结构。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Naval Research Logistics 管理科学-运筹学与管理科学

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.30%

发文量

审稿时长

8 months

期刊介绍： Submissions that are most appropriate for NRL are papers addressing modeling and analysis of problems motivated by real-world applications; major methodological advances in operations research and applied statistics; and expository or survey pieces of lasting value. Areas represented include (but are not limited to) probability, statistics, simulation, optimization, game theory, quality, scheduling, reliability, maintenance, supply chain, decision analysis, and combat models. Special issues devoted to a single topic are published occasionally, and proposals for special issues are welcomed by the Editorial Board.