Herding Behavior in Prediction Markets: Evidence from UK Financial Spread-Trading Markets

Abstract

We contrast the degree (strong vs. weak), nature (interaction between more and less informed traders; MI and LI, respectively), and patterns of herding behavior (via their feedback strategies) among MI and LI traders and their speed of reaction to shifts in trading by these groups. This is achieved by analyzing individual investment records of 1,943 traders in UK spread-trading markets (2010–2012). We find that herding is far more prevalent than previous studies suggest, particularly among LI; herding activities of MI and LI are related, and the means used to distinguish MI and LI needs to be considered carefully.