Indeks Harga Komsumen (IHK) di Lampung Menggunakan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator that influences economic growth. CPI is an index that calculates the average of price change of a group of goods and services consumed by households in a certain period of time. CPI is also used to measure inflation in a country. Inflation is described by changes in the CPI from time to time. To anticipate and minimize economic risks caused by inflation, forecasting will be carried out on CPI data. In this study, the CPI will be predicted for the next 6 months using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. The result of this research shows that the ARIMA models that can be used to predict CPI are ARIMA (0,2,0), ARIMA (0,2,1), ARIMA (1,2,0), and ARIMA (1,2,1) . The selection of the best model is carried out based on the model that has the smallest AIC value. Based on this, the best model used to predict CPI is the ARIMA model (0,2,1) with an AIC value of 83.21. In addition, this model fulfills diagnostics with white noise residuals, so that forecasting results using this model will be more accurate.