INVESTIGATION OF THE DYNAMICS OF RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER AND PUBLIC CATERING IN MOSCOW IN THE CONDITIONS OF TURBULENCE OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

The article examines the dynamics of retail trade and catering turnover in the largest metropolis of Russia — Moscow. The authors found that both indicators respond quickly and clearly to changes in the external environment. Based on the analysis of time series of 2015–2022 indicators, the disturbing effect of economic sanctions, the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as a special military operation is estimated. The high ability of economic indicators to recover quickly (within a year) after the cessation of disturbing influences has been confirmed. Using the correlation matrix method, close relationships between the variables of time, average salary, retail trade turnover and catering were revealed. Regression equations linking these variables are obtained, after which the effect of retail and catering turnover growth caused by an increase in wages is quantified. The obtained regression equations can be used to predict the values of the considered variables on the horizon the lead time is 2–3 years. The growth of the turnover of Moscow public catering is ensured thanks to the development of the social nutrition system. With its further development, it is advisable to adjust the assortment policy, focusing on a broader offer of dairy products to visitors, since their consumption by Russians has not yet reached the rational norm.