Exploring the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the existence of a long-run relationship between economic growth and oil prices in Türkiye using annual data for the period 1987-2019. First, the stationarity of the variables is evaluated using the Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS) based ADF unit root test. Second, the RALS-based cointegration test is used to investigate the long-run relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between economic growth and oil prices in Türkiye. As a result, it is concluded that the series does not return to equilibrium in the long run and oil price shocks during the financial turmoil may affect economic growth.