Comparing Different Replacement Policies for Logging Machines in Brazil

IF 2.7 2区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
C. Diniz, Romano Timofeiczyk Junior, Carlos Garzel Joao, Cesar Gonçalves Robert Renato, John Sessions, Eduardo da Silva Lopes
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A dynamic programing algorithm to identify schedules that minimize the discounted cost (DC) of logging machines over a planning horizon including gains from technological progress was used. The identified schedules were also compared with three alternative replacement policies derived from the literature and Brazilian forestry companies. The case study used a harvester and a forwarder and a 100-year planning horizon, where the maximum replacement limit was 8 years. To apply the dynamic programing algorithm, it was necessary to generate lists from cash flows, which incorporated the possible replacement combinations of a series of machines according to the length of the planning horizon and the maximum replacement limit. The lists were formed by three descriptors: predecessor node (moment of purchase of the machine), future node (point of sale for the acquisition of a new machine), and arc value (DC information, the mean production cost and mean production). The results show that the DC identified for the series of harvester replacements was higher compared to the forwarder. It was also identified that the harvester's economic life is shorter, and with technological progress, there was a reduction in the economic life of both machines. Technological progress was also responsible for reducing the average production cost and increasing the average production of machines. When comparing the alternative schedules (AS), it was found that, although AS had a higher DC value and mean production costs, there was very little difference between them. In the harvester's case, AS01 had the highest DC value ($4.36 million). By choosing it, the decision maker would bear a DC boost of $54,000, while AS02 and AS03 would trigger an increase of $43,000 and $32,000, respectively. For the forwarder, the schedule with the highest DC value was AS03 ($3.69 million). The postponement of the replacements made in alternative schedule 01 and alternative schedule 02 resulted in an increase in the DC of $5000, while the anticipation of the replacements made in the alternative schedule 03 resulted in an increase of $48,000. The aspect that stood out the most, in relation to the results presented, was the small variation that the alternative schedules presented in relation to the schedules obtained using the dynamic programing algorithm. With a DC variation of less than 1.4%, the results lead us to conclude that the decision maker will not suffer much harm in choosing any of the alternative schedules tested.
比较巴西不同的伐木机械更换政策
采用动态编程算法,确定了在包括技术进步收益在内的规划期限内使伐木机械贴现成本(DC)最小化的时间表。确定的时间表还与文献和巴西林业公司提供的三种替代更换政策进行了比较。案例研究使用了一台采伐机和一台转运机,规划期限为 100 年,其中最大更换期限为 8 年。为了应用动态编程算法,有必要从现金流中生成列表,其中包括根据规划期限和最大更换期限对一系列机器可能的更换组合。列表由三个描述符组成:前置节点(购买机器的时刻)、未来节点(购买新机器的销售点)和弧值(直流信息、平均生产成本和平均产量)。结果表明,与转运车相比,为一系列收割机更换确定的 DC 较高。此外,还发现收割机的经济寿命较短,随着技术进步,两台机器的经济寿命都有所缩短。技术进步还降低了平均生产成本,提高了机器的平均产量。在对备选时间表(AS)进行比较时发现,虽然 AS 的 DC 值和平均生产成本较高,但它们之间的差异很小。就收割机而言,AS01 的 DC 值最高(436 万美元)。如果选择 AS01,决策者将增加 5.4 万美元的生产成本,而 AS02 和 AS03 将分别增加 4.3 万美元和 3.2 万美元。对货代公司来说,直流值最高的时间表是 AS03(369 万美元)。推迟替代计划 01 和替代计划 02 的更换导致 DC 值增加 5 000 美元,而预计替代计划 03 的更换导致 DC 值增加 48 000 美元。与所提供的结果相比,最突出的一点是替代计划与使用动态编程算法得到的计划相比变化很小。由于直流变化小于 1.4%,结果使我们得出结论,决策者选择任何一个测试的备选计划都不会造成太大的损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
12.50%
发文量
23
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Croatian Journal of Forest Engineering (CROJFE) is a refereed journal distributed internationally, publishing original research articles concerning forest engineering, both theoretical and empirical. The journal covers all aspects of forest engineering research, ranging from basic to applied subjects. In addition to research articles, preliminary research notes and subject reviews are published. Journal Subjects and Fields: -Harvesting systems and technologies- Forest biomass and carbon sequestration- Forest road network planning, management and construction- System organization and forest operations- IT technologies and remote sensing- Engineering in urban forestry- Vehicle/machine design and evaluation- Modelling and sustainable management- Eco-efficient technologies in forestry- Ergonomics and work safety
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