Risk identification, analysis, and solution to carbon finance development in China: An improved DEMATEL-ISM approach under fuzzy environment

Yuanxin Liu, Xu Luo, Shuo He, Jiahai Yuan, Yao Tao
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Abstract

Developing carbon finance is significant to a green-oriented transition of energy but suffering risks in China. This article aims to construct a framework for the risk identification, analysis, and solution of carbon finance development. It could help trading parties, third-party intermediaries, and government to understand the main obstacles to carbon finance and then take effective control measures. Firstly, 12 risk factors in policy, economy, environment, technology, and society five aspects are identified. Secondly, the risk analysis data is obtained through a comparison of the mutual influence degree of factors, where hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set is used to collect the initial information and triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number is employed to quantify the qualitative linguistics. Expanding the analysis into fuzzy environment can avoid the loss of decision information caused by traditional single real number evaluation. Thirdly, the improved decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and interpretative structural modeling methods are combined to gain the risk analysis results. K-means is used to refine the influence relationship between factors in traditional DEMATEL to three categories: high effect, low effect, and no effect, which enhances applicability of the model in reality. Finally, corresponding improvement schemes and policy suggestions are proposed for each risk factor. The findings of research show that among the risks hindering carbon finance development: low carbon price, immature carbon abatement technology, lack of carbon financial products, and operational risk are the direct factors; adjustments in international climate policy is the fundamental factor.
中国碳金融发展的风险识别、分析与解决方案:模糊环境下改进的 DEMATEL-ISM 方法
发展碳金融对中国能源绿色转型意义重大,但也存在风险。本文旨在构建碳金融发展的风险识别、分析和解决框架。它可以帮助交易方、第三方中介机构和政府了解碳金融发展的主要障碍,并采取有效的控制措施。首先,从政策、经济、环境、技术和社会五个方面识别出 12 个风险因素。其次,通过比较各因素之间的相互影响程度来获得风险分析数据,其中使用犹豫模糊语言术语集来收集初始信息,并使用三角直觉模糊数来量化定性语言学。将分析扩展到模糊环境中,可以避免传统单一实数评价造成的决策信息损失。第三,将改进的决策试验和评估实验室(DEMATEL)与解释性结构模型方法相结合,获得风险分析结果。利用 K-均值法将传统 DEMATEL 中各因素之间的影响关系细化为高影响、低影响和无影响三类,增强了模型在现实中的适用性。最后,针对每个风险因素提出了相应的改进方案和政策建议。研究结果表明,阻碍碳金融发展的风险中,碳价过低、碳减排技术不成熟、碳金融产品缺乏、操作风险是直接因素,国际气候政策调整是根本因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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