Current and Potential Future Distribution of Small Mammals in the Selous Ecosystem, Tanzania

Aenea Saanya, L. Mulungu, A. Massawe, R. Makundi
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Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change is posing an ever-increasing threat to wildlife around the world, making it a primary concern and driver of various changes including in habitat, species composition and disease transmission and, therefore important towards setting conservation priorities. We investigated the relative abundance and current and future distribution of small mammal species in the Selous ecosystem, Tanzania. We captured a total of 674 small mammal individuals belonging to 22 species, including 16 rodents, 2 insectivores, 3 carnivores and 1 primate. Acomys ngurui was the most dominant species, while Steatomys parvus was the rarest. Abundance was significantly different between habitats. Maxent models suggested that most of the current highly suitable small mammal habitats will shrink by the year 2050, and species will be forced to concentrate in a few areas within and outside the ecosystem. It is recommended that climate change impacts be properly considered when developing conservation areas' general management plans and planning for new protected areas.
坦桑尼亚塞卢斯生态系统小型哺乳动物目前和未来的潜在分布情况
摘要 气候变化对世界各地的野生动物构成了日益严重的威胁,使其成为栖息地、物种组成和疾病传播等各种变化的主要关注点和驱动因素,因此对确定保护重点非常重要。我们调查了坦桑尼亚塞卢斯生态系统中小型哺乳动物物种的相对丰度以及当前和未来的分布情况。我们共捕获了 22 个物种的 674 只小型哺乳动物个体,包括 16 种啮齿类动物、2 种食虫类动物、3 种食肉类动物和 1 种灵长类动物。Acomys ngurui是最主要的物种,而Steatomys parvus是最稀有的物种。不同栖息地之间的丰度差异很大。Maxent 模型表明,到 2050 年,目前大部分高度适宜的小型哺乳动物栖息地将缩小,物种将被迫集中在生态系统内外的少数地区。建议在制定保护区总体管理计划和规划新保护区时适当考虑气候变化的影响。
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