{"title":"Revisiting China’s Commodity Futures Market Amid the Main Waves of COVID-19 Pandemics","authors":"Xiangyu Chen, Jittima Tongurai, Pattana Boonchoo","doi":"10.1007/s10690-023-09440-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the impact of the global pandemic on the returns and volatility of China’s commodity futures market from December 2019 to April 2021. Our analysis reveals that the regimes of futures returns in the general commodity, industrial, and metal markets are positively correlated with the regimes of pandemic cases, while the regimes of pandemic cases are negatively correlated with the returns of energy and precious metal futures. In contrast, futures volatilities exhibit inverse relationships with pandemic cases. With the exception of precious metals, which are widely considered safe-haven assets, the risk level of the commodity futures market, as measured by return volatility, is heightened by the level of pandemic cases. Bivariate SVAR results suggest that the pandemic has a greater but short-run impact on futures returns, while its effects on futures volatilities are relatively lesser but long-lasting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10690-023-09440-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study examines the impact of the global pandemic on the returns and volatility of China’s commodity futures market from December 2019 to April 2021. Our analysis reveals that the regimes of futures returns in the general commodity, industrial, and metal markets are positively correlated with the regimes of pandemic cases, while the regimes of pandemic cases are negatively correlated with the returns of energy and precious metal futures. In contrast, futures volatilities exhibit inverse relationships with pandemic cases. With the exception of precious metals, which are widely considered safe-haven assets, the risk level of the commodity futures market, as measured by return volatility, is heightened by the level of pandemic cases. Bivariate SVAR results suggest that the pandemic has a greater but short-run impact on futures returns, while its effects on futures volatilities are relatively lesser but long-lasting.
期刊介绍：
The current remarkable growth in the Asia-Pacific financial markets is certain to continue. These markets are expected to play a further important role in the world capital markets for investment and risk management. In accordance with this development, Asia-Pacific Financial Markets (formerly Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets), the official journal of the Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering (JAFEE), is expected to provide an international forum for researchers and practitioners in academia, industry, and government, who engage in empirical and/or theoretical research into the financial markets. We invite submission of quality papers on all aspects of finance and financial engineering.
Here we interpret the term ''financial engineering'' broadly enough to cover such topics as financial time series, portfolio analysis, global asset allocation, trading strategy for investment, optimization methods, macro monetary economic analysis and pricing models for various financial assets including derivatives We stress that purely theoretical papers, as well as empirical studies that use Asia-Pacific market data, are welcome.
Officially cited as: Asia-Pac Financ Markets
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