The Impact of Terrorism on Fertility: Evidence From Women of Childbearing Age in Pakistan

IF 1.5 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
Umer Javeid, Stephen Pratt, Han Li, Guochang Zhao
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Abstract

Direct and indirect exposure to terrorist attacks can have a significant impact on major life decisions, including the choice of whether to have a child. This study aims to investigate how terrorist attacks affect fertility. By pooling data from three years of cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2010 and 2015 by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, our findings reveal a positive correlation between terrorist attacks and fertility among women of childbearing age in Pakistan. Specifically, the probability of giving birth two years following a terrorist attack in one’s home district, all else equal, is 64 percent, compared to the probability of a woman not giving birth two years following a terrorist attack, which is 36 percent. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that persistent terrorist attacks, that is, domestic and non-suicide incidents, result in higher probabilities of giving birth during a particular year. Conversely, less common and more prominent terrorist attacks – transnational and suicide incidents – result in lower probabilities of giving birth during a particular year. Additionally, we find that women from above-average-income households, those with higher education levels, older mothers, and those residing in rural areas are more likely to adjust their fertility upwards in response to terrorist attacks.
恐怖主义对生育率的影响:巴基斯坦育龄妇女的证据
直接或间接遭受恐怖袭击会对人生的重大决定产生重大影响,包括是否要孩子的选择。本研究旨在调查恐怖袭击如何影响生育。通过汇总巴基斯坦统计局在 2010 年至 2015 年期间进行的三年横截面调查数据,我们的研究结果显示,恐怖袭击与巴基斯坦育龄妇女的生育率之间存在正相关。具体来说,在其他条件相同的情况下,在自己家乡地区遭受恐怖袭击两年后生育的概率为 64%,而在遭受恐怖袭击两年后不生育的概率为 36%。此外,我们的分析表明,持续性的恐怖袭击,即国内和非自杀性事件,会导致特定年份中生育的概率较高。相反,较不常见和较突出的恐怖袭击--跨国事件和自杀事件--则会降低特定年份的生育概率。此外,我们还发现,收入高于平均水平的家庭、受教育程度较高的家庭、年龄较大的母亲以及居住在农村地区的妇女更有可能因恐怖袭击而上调生育率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
审稿时长
26 weeks
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