Advances in using mathematical optimization to manage floods with assessment of possible benefits using a case study

Abstract

This paper presents the benefits of using mathematical optimization for reservoir operation based on the assumed availability of short-term runoff forecasts. The novelty is the inclusion of the SSARR hydrological routing as optimization constraints in multiple time step optimization, where the routing coefficients are adjusted dynamically as functions of the channel flows. The paper shows significant reduction to downstream peak flows in flood-prone areas even with a forecast horizon of only 2 days, and it also includes the results of testing the effects of different lengths of forecasting horizons on model results. The case study is conducted on the Damodar River Basin in the Indian State of West Bengal, where basin development started in the 1950s, with flood protection of the downstream river valley as the highest management priority, in addition to water supply and hydro power. The solution methodology and the model results presented in this paper pave the way for eventual introduction to automated management of reservoir outflows that could revolutionize water resources industry in much the same way that auto-pilot and driverless cars are revolutionizing the transportation industry, assuming that runoff forecasting capabilities continue to improve.