Monte Carlo-based Charging Demand Forecasting Model and Market Space Study

Abstract

With the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry, charging infrastructure has gradually become a key factor affecting the further development of the new energy vehicle industry. Scientific and reasonable forecasts of the future development scale of the domestic charging infrastructure market have become an important element supporting the business planning of various related parties such as vehicle enterprises, charging pile enterprises, and the energy industry. Based on the distribution data of electric vehicle traveling and charging characteristics obtained from the industry research, this study proposes a set of charging infrastructure prediction model based on the principle of energy supply-demand balance, predicts the development scale of charging infrastructure in the country and key cities, and further analyzes the market competition and future market margin of the key cities, and evaluates the difficulty of future market entry in the key cities, which provides a basis for further development of the charging infrastructure industry. The difficulty of entering the future market in each key city is assessed, providing business decision support for industry participants. In the future, the charging infrastructure development scale prediction results proposed by this study can be used as the input parameters of the charging pile layout planning model to enhance the scientific nature of the charging infrastructure layout and help the industry to develop in a high-quality manner.