Assessing the progress toward achieving energy‐ and climate‐related sustainable development goals under four global energy transition outlooks

Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), underscoring the critical need for energy transitions to mitigate the climate crisis. The achievement of two energy‐ and climate‐focused SDGs—SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action)—remains uncertain under potential future global energy transition outlooks. This study evaluates the progress toward achieving SDGs 7 and 13 by 2050 under four representative energy transition outlooks through 14 performance indicators derived from a global system dynamics model. Our results reveal a progressive trend in achieving SDGs 7 and 13 under these energy transition outlooks. The overall progress scores toward these two SDGs are estimated as 16.23% in 2030 and 20.06% in 2050 under the most conservative outlook and 65.35% in 2030 and 88.24% in 2050 under the most radical outlook. Although energy transitions contribute to achieving SDGs 7 and 13, our analysis indicates that the world is far off‐track in achieving these SDGs by relying solely on the implementation of energy transition policies. We further suggest promising measures from both the energy sector and other vital sectors to facilitate progress toward achieving the two SDGs.