The influence of time varying sea-ice concentration on Antarctic and Southern Ocean numerical weather prediction

IF 3 3区地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI:10.1175/waf-d-22-0220.1

Zhaohui Wang, Alexander D. Fraser, Phil Reid, Richard Coleman, S. O’Farrell

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Although operational weather forecasting centres are increasingly using global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models to replace atmosphere-only models for short- and medium-range (10-day) weather forecasting, the influence of sea ice on such forecasting has yet to be fully quantified, especially in the Southern Ocean. To address this gap, a polar-specific version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is implemented with a circumpolar Antarctic domain to investigate the impact of daily updates of sea-ice concentration on short- and medium- range weather forecasting. A statistically-significant improvement in near-surface atmospheric temperature and humidity is shown from +24 hours to +192 hours when updating the daily sea-ice concentration in the model. The forecast skill improvements for 2 m temperature and dewpoint temperature are enhanced from June to September, which is the period of late sea-ice advance. Regionally, model improvement is shown to occur in most sea-ice regions, although the improvement is strongest in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors. The surface heat budget also shows remarkable improvement in outgoing radiative heat fluxes and both sensible and latent heat fluxes. This idealised research demonstrates the non-negligible effect of including more accurate time-varying sea-ice concentration in numerical weather forecasting.

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海冰浓度时变对南极和南大洋数值天气预报的影响

尽管业务天气预报中心越来越多地使用全球大气-海洋-冰层耦合模式来取代纯大气模式进行中短期（10 天）天气预报，但海冰对这种预报的影响尚未完全量化，特别是在南大洋。为了弥补这一不足，我们在南极环极域实施了极地专用版天气研究和预报模式，以研究海冰浓度每日更新对中短期天气预报的影响。在模型中每日更新海冰浓度后，近地面大气温度和湿度从+24 小时到+192 小时都有统计意义上的显著改善。6 月至 9 月是海冰后期推进期，这一时期 2 米气温和露点温度的预报技能得到提高。从区域上看，大多数海冰区的模式改进，尽管罗斯海和威德尔海区的改进最强。地表热量预算也显示出外向辐射热通量以及显热和潜热通量的显著改善。这项理想化研究表明，将更准确的时变海冰浓度纳入数值天气预报具有不可忽视的作用。

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来源期刊

Weather and Forecasting 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

17.20%

发文量

131

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Weather and Forecasting (WAF) (ISSN: 0882-8156; eISSN: 1520-0434) publishes research that is relevant to operational forecasting. This includes papers on significant weather events, forecasting techniques, forecast verification, model parameterizations, data assimilation, model ensembles, statistical postprocessing techniques, the transfer of research results to the forecasting community, and the societal use and value of forecasts. The scope of WAF includes research relevant to forecast lead times ranging from short-term “nowcasts” through seasonal time scales out to approximately two years.