METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING FOREST FIRE RISKS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

The article discusses the issues of assessing forest fire risks and factors determining the likelihood of their occurrence. Using methods of combinatorics of risk factors, the most dangerous fire situations in forest areas were identified. An assessment method and a forecast model are proposed that takes into account the influence of variable and conditionally constant factors on the implementation of forest fire risks, which makes it possible to further rank forest areas according to the likelihood of forest fires and the level of costs for their prevention and elimination.