The War in Ukraine: Estonia and European Strategic Autonomy Responding to Russia

Abstract

Debates following the events of February 2022 in Estonian society have been hot, and despite diverging opinion, a mainstream viewpoint on how to assist Ukraine, how to respond to Russia, what to expect from NATO allies and how to deal with the inner cohesion of Estonia´s multi-ethnic and multilingual society has emerged. The least problematic has been the understanding of how to help Ukraine, with Estonia emerging as the leading donating nation per capita in 2022. As for the response to Russian aggression in Ukraine, the majority of the Estonian public and elite support significantly more severe sanctions than those that have been enacted. Although there have been voices which have demanded the straightforward intervention of NATO in the conflict, the strongest consensus backs the view that the Western world should not become directly involved but should indirectly support Ukraine to a greater degree than it has managed to thus far. Despite its membership in NATO, the Estonian political and military elite, as well as the Estonian language part of the society remains afraid that Russia will use the same logic and action against the Baltic States. The main question for Estonia is if and when, after the end of the war in Ukraine, Russia might be ready and motivated to challenge NATO in the Baltic states.