Examining the Role of Inflation Moderation in Mitigating the Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Indonesia's Sharia Stock Market

Noval Noval, N. Syamsu, Syaakir Sofyan, Rachmawati A. Rifai
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of crude oil prices on Indonesia's Sharia stock market, considering inflation as a moderating variable to address existing debates in prior research. Utilizing data from June 2011 to December 2021, including the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), World Texas Intermediate (WTI), and inflation, the study employs Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to uncover significant positive correlations between crude oil prices and the Sharia stock market. The findings highlight the moderating role of inflation, indicating that the market weakens when crude oil prices rise alongside inflation and strengthens in the absence of inflationary pressures. Practical implications suggest portfolio diversification for investors to manage associated risks. The study contributes theoretically by introducing additional moderator variables and offers empirical insights, yet acknowledges limitations, advocating for further research to deepen the understanding of the complex relationship between crude oil prices, inflation, and the Sharia Stock Market in Indonesia.
研究通胀缓和在减轻原油价格对印尼伊斯兰教股票市场影响方面的作用
本研究调查了原油价格对印尼伊斯兰教股市的影响,并将通货膨胀作为调节变量,以解决以往研究中存在的争议。本研究利用 2011 年 6 月至 2021 年 12 月的数据,包括印尼伊斯兰教股票指数(ISSI)、世界德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)和通货膨胀率,采用修正回归分析法(MRA)发现原油价格和伊斯兰教股票市场之间存在显著的正相关关系。研究结果凸显了通货膨胀的调节作用,表明当原油价格与通货膨胀同时上升时,市场会走弱,而在没有通货膨胀压力的情况下,市场会走强。实际影响建议投资者进行投资组合多样化,以管理相关风险。本研究通过引入额外的调节变量,在理论上做出了贡献,并提供了经验见解,但也承认存在局限性,主张进一步研究,以加深对原油价格、通货膨胀和印度尼西亚伊斯兰教股票市场之间复杂关系的理解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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