{"title":"Heat-Related Mortality in the Extreme Summer of 2022.","authors":"Veronika Huber, Susanne Breitner-Busch, Cheng He, Franziska Matthies-Wiesler, Annette Peters, Alexandra Schneider","doi":"10.3238/arztebl.m2023.0254","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Estimating the excess mortality attributable to heat is a central element of the documentation of the consequences of climate change for human health. Until now, estimates of heatrelated deaths in Germany by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have been based on weekly mortality records.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Our study is the first to use higher resolution data-i.e. daily all-cause mortality linked to daily mean temperatures-from each of the German federal states to assess the heat-related mortality from 2000 to 2023 in Germany, employing quasi-Poisson models and multivariate meta-regression analyses. We focus our analysis on the extreme summer of 2022.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our analysis yielded an estimate of 9100 (95% CI: [7300; 10 700]) heat-related deaths in Germany for the summer of 2022, whereas previous studies of the RKI estimated the number of heatrelated deaths at 4500 [2100; 7000]. When we set a higher temperature threshold in the definition of the heat risk, we arrived at a figure of 6900 [5500; 8100] heat-related deaths in 2022. In other summers that-similarly to 2022-were characterized by large fluctuations in daily mean temperatures, we also robustly estimated higher numbers of heat-related deaths than the RKI did. The exclusion of reported deaths due to COVID-19 had only a minor effect on our estimates.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our findings suggest that previous studies based on weekly mortality data have underestimated the full extent of heat-related mortality in Germany, particularly in the extreme summer of 2022. The monitoring of heat-related mortality should be systematic and as comprehensive as possible if it is to enable the development of effective heat-health action plans.</p>","PeriodicalId":11258,"journal":{"name":"Deutsches Arzteblatt international","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11002439/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Deutsches Arzteblatt international","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.m2023.0254","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Estimating the excess mortality attributable to heat is a central element of the documentation of the consequences of climate change for human health. Until now, estimates of heatrelated deaths in Germany by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have been based on weekly mortality records.
Methods: Our study is the first to use higher resolution data-i.e. daily all-cause mortality linked to daily mean temperatures-from each of the German federal states to assess the heat-related mortality from 2000 to 2023 in Germany, employing quasi-Poisson models and multivariate meta-regression analyses. We focus our analysis on the extreme summer of 2022.
Results: Our analysis yielded an estimate of 9100 (95% CI: [7300; 10 700]) heat-related deaths in Germany for the summer of 2022, whereas previous studies of the RKI estimated the number of heatrelated deaths at 4500 [2100; 7000]. When we set a higher temperature threshold in the definition of the heat risk, we arrived at a figure of 6900 [5500; 8100] heat-related deaths in 2022. In other summers that-similarly to 2022-were characterized by large fluctuations in daily mean temperatures, we also robustly estimated higher numbers of heat-related deaths than the RKI did. The exclusion of reported deaths due to COVID-19 had only a minor effect on our estimates.
Conclusion: Our findings suggest that previous studies based on weekly mortality data have underestimated the full extent of heat-related mortality in Germany, particularly in the extreme summer of 2022. The monitoring of heat-related mortality should be systematic and as comprehensive as possible if it is to enable the development of effective heat-health action plans.
期刊介绍:
Deutsches Ärzteblatt International is a bilingual (German and English) weekly online journal that focuses on clinical medicine and public health. It serves as the official publication for both the German Medical Association and the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. The journal is dedicated to publishing independent, peer-reviewed articles that cover a wide range of clinical medicine disciplines. It also features editorials and a dedicated section for scientific discussion, known as correspondence.
The journal aims to provide valuable medical information to its international readership and offers insights into the German medical landscape. Since its launch in January 2008, Deutsches Ärzteblatt International has been recognized and included in several prestigious databases, which helps to ensure its content is accessible and credible to the global medical community. These databases include:
Carelit
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Compendex
DOAJ (Directory of Open Access Journals)
EMBASE (Excerpta Medica database)
EMNursing
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HINARI (Health InterNetwork Access to Research Initiative)
Index Copernicus
Medline (MEDLARS Online)
Medpilot
PsycINFO (Psychological Information Database)
Science Citation Index Expanded
Scopus
By being indexed in these databases, Deutsches Ärzteblatt International's articles are made available to researchers, clinicians, and healthcare professionals worldwide, contributing to the global exchange of medical knowledge and research.