Mathematical analysis for the dynamics of snakebite envenoming

IF 0.9 Q2 MATHEMATICS
Shuaibu Ahijo Abdullahi, Abdulrazaq Garba Habib, Nafiu Hussaini
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A mechanistic model that incorporates public health enlightenment, treatment, and snake developmental stages is developed and rigorously analyzed. The model is used to gain more insights into the dynamics and control of snakebite envenoming (SBE). Some interesting equilibrium points that demonstrate the presence and absence of snakes in a given population were computed. It has been shown that the existence or extinction of snakes in a given community depends on snake existence threshold (RS). Whenever the threshold is greater than one, snakes exist in the community, while if the threshold is exactly equal to one, then snakes seize to exist. Furthermore, a rigorous qualitative study of the model revealed that each of the snake-free, SBE-free, and SBE-endemic equilibrium points is globally asymptotically stable. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was conducted in order to identify the most influential parameters on SBE transmission dynamics. It is shown that an effective contact rate is the most important parameter. Therefore, preventive strategies that focus on reducing contact between humans and snakes, such as the use of snakebite repellent and protective gloves, are very important in controlling SBE. Finally, simulations have indicated that public health education on the use of snakebite preventive measures in combination with treatment of SBE victims is critical in reducing the number of new cases and deaths, respectively.

蛇咬伤中毒动态的数学分析
我们建立了一个包含公共卫生启蒙、治疗和蛇类发展阶段的机理模型,并对其进行了严格分析。该模型用于深入了解蛇咬伤(SBE)的动态和控制。计算了一些有趣的平衡点,这些平衡点证明了特定种群中蛇的存在和不存在。研究表明,蛇在特定群落中的存在或灭绝取决于蛇的存在阈值(RS)。只要阈值大于 1,蛇就会在群落中存在,而如果阈值正好等于 1,蛇就会消失。此外,对模型进行的严格定性研究表明,无蛇、无 SBE 和 SBE 流行均衡点都是全局渐近稳定的。此外,还对模型参数进行了敏感性分析,以确定对 SBE 传播动态影响最大的参数。结果表明,有效接触率是最重要的参数。因此,以减少人蛇接触为重点的预防策略,如使用驱蛇剂和防护手套,对控制 SBE 非常重要。最后,模拟结果表明,关于使用蛇咬伤预防措施的公共卫生教育与对蛇咬伤受害者的治疗相结合,对于分别减少新发病例和死亡人数至关重要。
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来源期刊
Afrika Matematika
Afrika Matematika MATHEMATICS-
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
9.10%
发文量
96
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