Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin, China

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Yanmin Lin, Zhirui Hu, Wenhui Li, Haonan Chen, Fang Wang, Xiongxiong Nan, Xuelong Yang, Wenjun Zhang
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Abstract

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage (ECS), particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate. In this study, we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin, China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model based on land use data. We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios: natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector (Geodetector). Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×106 t in 2010, followed by a decreasing trend to 2050. The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, and low values in the western and northern parts. Between 1985 and 2020, land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land, woodland, and construction land at the expense of unused land. The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios (ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS) would be lower than that in 2020. Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS, with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors. Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

1985-2050年中国黄河流域宁夏段生态系统碳储存对土地利用变化的响应
区域可持续发展需要全面了解生态系统碳储存(ECS)的时空变化,尤其是在干旱和半干旱气候的生态敏感地区。在本研究中,我们利用基于土地利用数据的生态系统服务与权衡综合估值模型(InVEST)计算了中国黄河流域宁夏段 1985-2020 年的生态系统碳储量。利用斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型进一步预测了2050年自然发展情景(NDS)、生态保护情景(EPS)、耕地保护情景(CPS)和城市发展情景(UDS)四种土地利用情景下的ECS空间分布,并利用地理探测器(Geodetector)量化了自然和人为因素对ECS空间分异的影响。结果表明,研究区域的环境碳酸盐总量从1985年开始增加,到2010年达到峰值402.36×106 t,随后呈下降趋势,直到2050年。ECS 的空间分布特点是研究区东部和南部的数值较高,西部和北部的数值较低。1985-2020 年间,土地利用的变化主要表现为耕地、林地和建设用地的扩大,而未利用土地的减少。在不同的土地利用方案下(按 EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS 排序),2050 年的 ECS 总值将低于 2020 年。夜间光照是造成 ECS 空间差异的最大因素,土壤类型和年平均气温是主要的自然驱动因素。研究结果可为干旱半干旱地区的生态建设和高质量发展提供指导。
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来源期刊
Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
768
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large. The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.
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