On the effect of COVID-19 and policy uncertainty on the stock market: evidence from India

IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI:10.1108/ijse-03-2023-0244

Masudul Hasan Adil, Salman Haider

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

The present study empirically examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and policy uncertainty on stock prices in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

To this end, the authors use the daily data by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which tests the short- and long-run relationship between stock price and its covariates.

Findings

The study finds that increased uncertainty has adverse short- and long-run effects on stock prices, while the vaccine index has favorable effects on stock market recovery.

Practical implications

From investors' perspectives, volatility in the Indian stock market has negative repercussions. Therefore, to protect investors' sentiments, policymakers should be concerned about the uncertainty induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and similar other uncertainty prevailing in the financial markets.

Originality/value

This study used the news-based COVID-19 index and vaccine index to measure recent pandemic-induced uncertainty. The result carries some policy implications for an emerging economy like India.

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-03-2023-0244

查看原文本刊更多论文

COVID-19 和政策不确定性对股市的影响：来自印度的证据

目的本研究实证检验了在 COVID-19 大流行期间，印度 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）和政策不确定性对股票价格的影响。为此，作者采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型，使用每日数据检验股票价格及其协变量之间的短期和长期关系。研究结果研究发现，不确定性的增加会对股票价格产生不利的短期和长期影响，而疫苗指数则会对股市复苏产生有利影响。因此，为了保护投资者的情绪，政策制定者应关注 COVID-19 大流行病和金融市场中普遍存在的其他类似不确定性所引发的不确定性。研究结果对印度这样的新兴经济体具有一定的政策影响。同行评议本文的同行评议历史见：https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-03-2023-0244。

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来源期刊

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL ECONOMICS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Social Economics publishes original and peer-reviewed theoretical and empirical research in the field of social economics. Its focus is on the examination and analysis of the interaction between economic activity, individuals and communities. Social economics focuses on the relationship between social action and economies, and examines how social and ethical norms influence the behaviour of economic agents. It is inescapably normative and focuses on needs, rather than wants or preferences, and considers the wellbeing of individuals in communities: it accepts the possibility of a common good rather than conceiving of communities as merely aggregates of individual preferences and the problems of economics as coordinating those preferences. Therefore, contributions are invited which analyse and discuss well-being, welfare, the nature of the good society, governance and social policy, social and economic justice, social and individual economic motivation, and the associated normative and ethical implications of these as they express themselves in, for example, issues concerning the environment, labour and work, education, the role of families and women, inequality and poverty, health and human development.