{"title":"Enhancing bitcoin transaction confirmation prediction: a hybrid model combining neural networks and XGBoost","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11280-023-01212-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>With Bitcoin being universally recognized as the most popular cryptocurrency, more Bitcoin transactions are expected to be populated to the Bitcoin blockchain system. As a result, many transactions can encounter different confirmation delays. Concerned about this, it becomes vital to help a user understand (if possible) how long it may take for a transaction to be confirmed in the Bitcoin blockchain. In this work, we address the issue of predicting confirmation time within a block interval rather than pinpointing a specific timestamp. After dividing the future into a set of block intervals (i.e., classes), the prediction of a transaction’s confirmation is treated as a classification problem. To solve it, we propose a framework, Hybrid Confirmation Time Estimation Network (<strong>Hybrid-CTEN</strong>), based on neural networks and XGBoost to predict transaction confirmation time in the Bitcoin blockchain system using three different sources of information: historical transactions in the blockchain, unconfirmed transactions in the mempool, as well as the estimated transaction itself. Finally, experiments on real-world blockchain data demonstrate that, other than XGBoost excelling in the binary classification case (to predict whether a transaction will be confirmed in the next generated block), our proposed framework Hybrid-CTEN outperforms state-of-the-art methods on precision, recall and f1-score on all the multiclass classification cases (4-class, 6-class and 8-class) to predict in which future block interval a transaction will be confirmed.</p>","PeriodicalId":501180,"journal":{"name":"World Wide Web","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"World Wide Web","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11280-023-01212-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
With Bitcoin being universally recognized as the most popular cryptocurrency, more Bitcoin transactions are expected to be populated to the Bitcoin blockchain system. As a result, many transactions can encounter different confirmation delays. Concerned about this, it becomes vital to help a user understand (if possible) how long it may take for a transaction to be confirmed in the Bitcoin blockchain. In this work, we address the issue of predicting confirmation time within a block interval rather than pinpointing a specific timestamp. After dividing the future into a set of block intervals (i.e., classes), the prediction of a transaction’s confirmation is treated as a classification problem. To solve it, we propose a framework, Hybrid Confirmation Time Estimation Network (Hybrid-CTEN), based on neural networks and XGBoost to predict transaction confirmation time in the Bitcoin blockchain system using three different sources of information: historical transactions in the blockchain, unconfirmed transactions in the mempool, as well as the estimated transaction itself. Finally, experiments on real-world blockchain data demonstrate that, other than XGBoost excelling in the binary classification case (to predict whether a transaction will be confirmed in the next generated block), our proposed framework Hybrid-CTEN outperforms state-of-the-art methods on precision, recall and f1-score on all the multiclass classification cases (4-class, 6-class and 8-class) to predict in which future block interval a transaction will be confirmed.
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