Analysis of the Long-run Linkage Effect between Pension Insurance and Economic Growth Based on VAR Modeling

Kaini Chen
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Abstract

This paper conducts an empirical analysis based on the VAR model to explore the mechanism of the long-term spillover effects of our country's pension insurance on economic growth. The study reveals that the implementation of the pension insurance system can stimulate consumption and savings among the elderly, thus promoting economic growth. Additionally, it encourages increased labor supply and fosters the accumulation of human capital, exerting a positive impact on economic growth. The equity and sustainability of pension insurance can improve income distribution and reduce wealth disparity, leading to a favorable impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the empirical analysis demonstrates the long-term spillover effects of pension insurance on economic growth, providing significant support for the sustainable development of the pension insurance system and economic growth. This holds considerable theoretical and practical value for formulating pension insurance policies and promoting sustainable economic development.
基于 VAR 模型的养老保险与经济增长长期关联效应分析
本文基于 VAR 模型进行实证分析,探讨了我国养老保险对经济增长的长期溢出效应机制。研究表明,养老保险制度的实施可以刺激老年人的消费和储蓄,从而促进经济增长。此外,它还能鼓励增加劳动力供给,促进人力资本积累,对经济增长产生积极影响。养老保险的公平性和可持续性可以改善收入分配,缩小贫富差距,从而对经济增长产生有利影响。此外,实证分析还证明了养老保险对经济增长的长期溢出效应,为养老保险制度的可持续发展和经济增长提供了重要支持。这对于制定养老保险政策、促进经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践价值。
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