The Future of Secular Law in Spain: A Model Based on the Evolution of Religiosity and Religious Influence on Law

Abstract

This article analyzes how the evolution of religiosity will affect the secularity of Spanish law. In a liberal constitutional system such as that of Spain, the influence of religion on law is inevitable. The article proposes a model based on two variables: the increase or decrease of the religious population and the capacity and willingness of religions to influence secular law. The four possible resulting scenarios are religious aggrandizement (a growing religious population seeking to shape the law); religious secularization (a growing religious population with a worldview compatible with secularity); religious backlash (some religious minorities undermining the secularity of the law); and religious diminishment (a declining religious population losing its capacity or willingness to influence the law). The model demonstrates theoretically that inclusion policies do not necessarily lead to the Islamization of Spain. Ignoring religious issues can lead to the marginalization of a religious minority, which favors radicalization and non-acceptance of secularity.