The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25-30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective

Abstract

An unprecedented heatwave occurred over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25-30 June 2021, resulting in all-time temperature records that greatly exceeded previous record maximum temperatures. The impacts were substantial, including several hundred deaths, thousands of hospitalizations, a major wildfire in Lytton, British Columbia, and severe damage to regional vegetation. Several factors came together to produce this extreme event: a record-breaking mid-tropospheric ridge over British Columbia in the optimal location, record-breaking mid-tropospheric temperatures, strong subsidence in the lower atmosphere, low-level easterly flow that produced downslope warming on regional terrain and the removal of cooler marine air, an approaching low-level trough that enhanced downslope flow, the occurrence at a time of maximum solar insolation, and drier than normal soil moisture. It is shown that all-time record temperatures have not become more frequent and that annual high temperatures are only increased at the rate of baseline global warming. Although anthropogenic warming may have contributed as much as 1°C to the event, there is little evidence of further amplification from increasing greenhouse gases. Weather forecasts were excellent for this event, with highly accurate predictions of the extreme temperatures.