Transient dynamics mask the resilience of coral reefs

IF 1.2 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ECOLOGY

Theoretical Ecology Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI:10.1007/s12080-023-00570-4

Karlo Hock, Alan Hastings, Christopher Doropoulos, Russell C. Babcock, Juan C. Ortiz, Angus Thompson, Peter J. Mumby

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Coral reefs are model systems for studies of ecological resilience, with communities generally exhibiting multiple stable states and more resilient regions trending towards a single, coral-dominated, regime. We expand the theory of ecological resilience beyond the concepts of distinct stable states to integrate emerging ideas from transient dynamics as long-term intermediate states with no pronounced trend towards equilibria. We show that low coral abundance, together with stochastic larval supply and disturbance, can trap otherwise resilient reefs in a persistent intermediate state whose long-term outcome is difficult to predict. Common metrics, such as the ecosystem slowing down before crossing tipping points and using historical coral cover trends, may become unreliable predictors of future behaviour. Helping reefs out of transient states requires agile management that allows for short-term, targeted interventions after which natural ecological feedbacks can take over.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

瞬态动态掩盖了珊瑚礁的复原力

珊瑚礁是研究生态恢复力的模型系统，其群落通常表现出多种稳定状态，而恢复力较强的区域则趋向于单一的、以珊瑚为主的状态。我们扩展了生态恢复力理论，超越了不同稳定状态的概念，纳入了瞬态动力学的新观点，即没有明显均衡趋势的长期中间状态。我们的研究表明，珊瑚丰度低，再加上随机幼虫供应和干扰，会使原本具有恢复力的珊瑚礁陷入难以预测长期结果的持续中间状态。常见的衡量标准，如生态系统在越过临界点前放缓以及使用历史珊瑚覆盖率趋势，可能会成为预测未来行为的不可靠指标。帮助珊瑚礁摆脱短暂状态需要灵活的管理，允许进行短期、有针对性的干预，之后自然生态反馈就可以接管。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Theoretical Ecology 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Theoretical Ecology publishes innovative research in theoretical ecology, broadly defined. Papers should use theoretical approaches to answer questions of ecological interest and appeal to and be readable by a broad audience of ecologists. Work that uses mathematical, statistical, computational, or conceptual approaches is all welcomed, provided that the goal is to increase ecological understanding. Papers that only use existing approaches to analyze data, or are only mathematical analyses that do not further ecological understanding, are not appropriate. Work that bridges disciplinary boundaries, such as the intersection between quantitative social sciences and ecology, or physical influences on ecological processes, will also be particularly welcome. All areas of theoretical ecology, including ecophysiology, population ecology, behavioral ecology, evolutionary ecology, ecosystem ecology, community ecology, and ecosystem and landscape ecology are all appropriate. Theoretical papers that focus on applied ecological questions are also of particular interest.