Machine Learning Models Predict the Need of Amputation and/or Peripheral Artery Revascularization in Hypertensive Patients Within 7-Years Follow-Up.

Abstract

Lower extremity amputation and requirement of peripheral artery revascularization are common outcomes of undiagnosed peripheral artery disease patients. In the current work, prediction models for the need of amputation or peripheral revascularization focused on hypertensive patients within seven years follow up are employed. We applied machine learning (ML) models using classifiers such as Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF) and Adaptive Boost (AdaBoost), that will allow clinicians to identify the patients at risk of these two endpoints using simple clinical data. We used the non-interventional cohort of the getABI study in the primary care setting, selecting 4,191 hypertensive patients out of 6,474 patients with age over 65 years old and followed up for vascular events or death up to 7 years. During this follow up period, 150 patients underwent either amputation or peripheral revascularization or both. Accuracy, Specificity, Sensitivity and Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were estimated for each machine learning model. The results demonstrate Random Forest as the most accurate model for the prediction of the composite endpoint in hypertensive patients within 7 years follow-up, achieving 73.27 % accuracy.Clinical Relevance-This study assists clinicians to better predict and treat these serious outcomes, amputation and peripheral revascularization in hypertensive patients.