Statistical integration of allele frequencies from several organizations

Abstract

Genetic evidence, especially evidence based on short tandem repeats, is of paramount importance for human identification in forensic inferences. In recent years, the identification of kinship using DNA evidence has drawn much attention in various fields. In particular, it is employed, using a criminal database, to confirm blood relations in forensics. The interpretation of the likelihood ratio when identifying an individual or a relationship depends on the allele frequencies that are used, and thus, it is crucial to obtain an accurate estimate of allele frequency. Each organization such as Supreme Prosecutors’ Office and Korean National Police Agency in Korea provides different statistical interpretations due to differing estimations of the allele frequency, which can lead to confusion in forensic identification. Therefore, it is very important to estimate allele frequency accurately, and doing so requires a certain amount of information. However, simply using a weighted average for each allele frequency may not be sufficient to determine biological independence. In this study, we propose a new statistical method for estimating allele frequency by integrating the data obtained from several organizations, and we analyze biological independence and differences in allele frequency relative to the weighted average of allele frequencies in various subgroups. Finally, our proposed method is illustrated using real data from 576 Korean individuals.