{"title":"Nonferrous metal price forecasting based on signal decomposition and ensemble learning","authors":"Peng Kong , Bei Sun , Hui Yang , Xueyu Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jprocont.2023.103146","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Nonferrous metals are indispensable raw materials for modern industry. The price forecasting of nonferrous metals is vital for business operators and investors. Based on the decomposition-integration framework, we propose a signal decomposition model combining variational mode decomposition (VMD) and an improved long-short time memory (LSTM) network. Using the MAE metric as a benchmark, the improved LSTM model (Mogrifier LSTM) obtained an average accuracy improvement of 5.99%. VMD is an efficient decomposition algorithm. However, it needs to set hyperparameters in advance. Unreasonable parameters will lead to poor decomposition results. Therefore, a method based on subseries complexity and reconstruction error (CAE) is proposed to reasonably decompose signals, improving 21.13% accuracy and reducing 37.56% computational overhead than other strategies. The structural model is introduced as a complement to the signal decomposition model, which learns different features by incorporating theoretical analyses into the choice of explanatory variables. The combining of two models achieves effective complementarity, obtaining an average accuracy improvement of 7.43%. Comparative tests on three datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed prediction framework. On the one hand, a reasonable decomposition strategy can play an essential role in the signal decomposition model. On the other hand, improving the prediction model and integrating different models is also an effective strategy to enhance accuracy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50079,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Process Control","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959152423002342/pdfft?md5=19bc5ec032ff4ef51c7987e52e13d7f4&pid=1-s2.0-S0959152423002342-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Process Control","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959152423002342","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Nonferrous metals are indispensable raw materials for modern industry. The price forecasting of nonferrous metals is vital for business operators and investors. Based on the decomposition-integration framework, we propose a signal decomposition model combining variational mode decomposition (VMD) and an improved long-short time memory (LSTM) network. Using the MAE metric as a benchmark, the improved LSTM model (Mogrifier LSTM) obtained an average accuracy improvement of 5.99%. VMD is an efficient decomposition algorithm. However, it needs to set hyperparameters in advance. Unreasonable parameters will lead to poor decomposition results. Therefore, a method based on subseries complexity and reconstruction error (CAE) is proposed to reasonably decompose signals, improving 21.13% accuracy and reducing 37.56% computational overhead than other strategies. The structural model is introduced as a complement to the signal decomposition model, which learns different features by incorporating theoretical analyses into the choice of explanatory variables. The combining of two models achieves effective complementarity, obtaining an average accuracy improvement of 7.43%. Comparative tests on three datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed prediction framework. On the one hand, a reasonable decomposition strategy can play an essential role in the signal decomposition model. On the other hand, improving the prediction model and integrating different models is also an effective strategy to enhance accuracy.
期刊介绍:
This international journal covers the application of control theory, operations research, computer science and engineering principles to the solution of process control problems. In addition to the traditional chemical processing and manufacturing applications, the scope of process control problems involves a wide range of applications that includes energy processes, nano-technology, systems biology, bio-medical engineering, pharmaceutical processing technology, energy storage and conversion, smart grid, and data analytics among others.
Papers on the theory in these areas will also be accepted provided the theoretical contribution is aimed at the application and the development of process control techniques.
Topics covered include:
• Control applications• Process monitoring• Plant-wide control• Process control systems• Control techniques and algorithms• Process modelling and simulation• Design methods
Advanced design methods exclude well established and widely studied traditional design techniques such as PID tuning and its many variants. Applications in fields such as control of automotive engines, machinery and robotics are not deemed suitable unless a clear motivation for the relevance to process control is provided.