Guided optimization of ToxPi model weights using a Semi-Automated approach

Abstract

The Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi) is a visual analysis and decision support tool for dimension reduction and visualization of high throughput, multi-dimensional feature data. ToxPi was originally developed for assessing the relative toxicity of multiple chemicals or stressors by synthesizing complex toxicological data to provide a single comprehensive view of the potential health effects. It continues to be used for profiling chemicals and has since been applied to other types of “sample” entities, including geospatial (e.g. county-level Covid-19 risk and sites of historical PFAS exposure) and other profiling applications. For any set of features (data collected on a set of sample entities), ToxPi integrates the data into a set of weighted slices that provide a visual profile and a score metric for comparison. This scoring system is highly dependent on user-provided feature weights, yet users often lack knowledge of how to define these feature weights. Common methods for predicting feature weights are generally unusable due to inappropriate statistical assumptions and lack of global distributional expectation. However, users often have an inherent understanding of expected results for a small subset of samples. For example, in chemical toxicity, prior knowledge can often place subsets of chemicals into categories of low, moderate or high toxicity (reference chemicals). Ordinal regression can be used to predict weights based on these response levels that are applicable to the entire feature set, analogous to using positive and negative controls to contextualize an empirical distribution. We propose a semi-supervised method utilizing ordinal regression to predict a set of feature weights that produces the best fit for the known response (“reference”) data and subsequently fine-tunes the weights via a customized genetic algorithm. We conduct a simulation study to show when this method can improve the results of ordinal regression, allowing for accurate feature weight prediction and sample ranking in scenarios with minimal response data. To ground-truth the guided weight optimization, we test this method on published data to build a ToxPi model for comparison against expert-knowledge-driven weight assignments.