Using a scenario-neutral approach to assess the impacts of climate change on flooding in the Ba River Basin, Viet Nam

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES
T. V. Tra, Van Thi Hang, Ngo Thi Thuy, Dang Thi Lan Phuong, Phan Van Thanh
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Abstract

Due to the hydrologic non-stationarity and uncertainty related to the probability assignment of flood peaks under climate change, the use of flood statistics may no longer be applicable. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis (i.e., a scenario-neutral approach) is used to examine the impacts of climate change on flooding in the Ba River Basin. A Delphi method with a set of KAMET rules was used to obtain a representative and a threshold flood event. These inputs are used for hydraulic simulation using a MIKE FLOOD model package. Flood simulations were performed using parametrically varied rainfall and temperature conditions. In total, 22 conditions were explored and are in line with CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results obtained have several implications. Firstly, rainfall change is the primary factor affecting flood impact in the Ba River Basin. Secondly, the flood peak in the Ba River Basin is highly sensitive to an increase in rainfall by up to 10%. Thirdly, the flooded threshold is reached when rainfall increases beyond 20%. Fourthly, the flood extent and depth are expected to increase as rainfall increases. Further research could improve the study using satellite rainfall data, satellite digital elevation models, and stochastic weather generators.
采用情景中立方法评估气候变化对越南巴河流域洪水的影响
由于水文的非平稳性和与气候变化下洪峰概率分配相关的不确定性,洪水统计的使用可能不再适用。因此,本文采用敏感性分析(即情景中性方法)来研究气候变化对巴河流域洪水的影响。采用一组KAMET规则的德尔菲法,获得具有代表性和阈值的洪水事件。这些输入用于使用MIKE FLOOD模型包进行水力模拟。洪水模拟使用参数变化的降雨和温度条件进行。总共探索了22个符合CMIP5和CMIP6的条件。得到的结果有几个含义。首先,降雨变化是影响灞河流域洪水影响的主要因素。其次,巴河流域洪峰对降雨量增加10%高度敏感。第三,当降雨量增加超过20%时,达到淹水阈值。第四,随着降雨量的增加,洪水的范围和深度预计会增加。进一步的研究可以利用卫星降雨数据、卫星数字高程模型和随机天气发生器来改进研究。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
10.70%
发文量
168
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.
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