Evaluating militant decision-making with information science: The Irish republican movement during the “Troubles”

Abstract

Why do militant groups decide to escalate or deescalate their use of violence in conflict? Examining the case of the “Troubles” in Northern Ireland, we analyze groups that adopt violence as a political strategy and evaluate factors that influence its application. To do so, we adopt a novel empirical approach to the study of militant groups. Drawn from information science, this approach enables estimation of variable influence and uncertainty within structured case studies, and is thus ideal for topics such as militant decision-making where systematic data collection is difficult.