Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone biases in ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts

Abstract

Extratropical cyclones influence midlatitude surface weather directly via precipitation and wind and indirectly via upscale feedbacks on the large-scale flow. Biases in cyclone frequency and characteristics in medium-range to sub-seasonal numerical weather prediction might therefore hinder exploiting the potential predictability on these timescales. We thus, for the first time, identify and track extratropical cyclones in 20 years (2000 - 2020) of sub-seasonal ensemble reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. The reforecasts reproduce the climatology of cyclone frequency and life cycle characteristics qualitatively well up to six weeks ahead. However, there are significant regional biases in cyclone frequency, which can result from a complex combination of biases in cyclone genesis, size, location, lifetime, and propagation speed. Their magnitude is largest in summer, with the strongest regional deficit of cyclones of more than 30\% in the North Atlantic, relatively large in spring, and smallest in winter and autumn. Moreover, the reforecast cyclones reach too high intensities during most seasons, although intensification rates are captured well. An overestimation of cyclone lifetime might partly but not exclusively explain this intensity bias. While the cyclone bias patterns often appear in lead time weeks 1-2, their magnitudes typically grow further at sub-seasonal lead times, in some cases up to weeks 5-6. Most of the dynamical sources of these biases thus likely appear in the early medium range, but sources on longer timescales probably contribute to the biases' further increase with lead time. Our study provides a useful basis to identify, better understand, and ultimately reduce biases in the large-scale flow and in surface weather in sub-seasonal weather forecasts. Given the considerable biases during summer, when sub-seasonal predictions of precipitation and surface temperature will become increasingly important, this season deserves particular attention for future research.