Problems of past anticipations of the future: The case of medical manpower

Abstract

This commentary explores historical efforts to diagnose the present and project the future through the specific example of medical manpower planning. To situate this, it draws on work within and across geography exploring the concept of anticipation and considers the discipline's failure to adequately engage with healthcare workers, despite the vibrancy of health geography as a subdiscipline. As it explores, ensuring adequate numbers of staff in a healthcare system has been an issue for as long as there have been healthcare systems. Planning for healthcare system needs is thus a particularly fraught form of anticipation that seeks to project future needs from a contested and often incalculable present as a basis for political decision-making and resource allocation. As this commentary explores, it is a problem that is global in scope, historically deep and thus rich in analytical possibility.