Affective Forecasting in Elections: A Socio-Communicative Perspective

Abstract

In orienting themselves to the future, people form expectations not only on what will happen but also on how they will feel about possible future occurrences. So far, such affective forecasting—the prediction of future feelings—has been studied mainly from a psychological perspective. This study aims to show the importance of a socio-communicative perspective for understanding the predictors, manifestations, and consequences of affective forecasting, especially when collective futures are at stake. Using the case study of the 2019–2021 Israeli elections and a combination of a 12-wave survey and 25 focus groups, we show how political affective forecasts are associated with socio-communicative factors, are used in social interactions, and have consequences for political polarization and participation. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for future research on affective forecasting in communication studies.