Research on the Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of Energy Resilience in China

Abstract

Energy security is the guarantee for achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and exploring energy resilience is one of the important ways to promote energy security transition and adapt to changes in international and domestic energy markets. This paper applies the combined dynamic evaluation method to measure China's energy resilience level from 2004-2021, analyses the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of China's energy resilience through the center of gravity-standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation, and employs geo-detectors to detect the main influencing factors and interactions of China's energy resilience. The study finds that:(1)China's energy resilience level generally shows a zigzagging forward development trend, and the spatial imbalance characteristic of China's energy resilience is more obvious.(2)The spatial dynamics of China's energy resilience level evolves in a northeast-southwest direction, and the whole moves towards the southwest, with an overall counterclockwise trend of constant offset.(3)When the energy resilience level of neighboring provinces is too low or too high, it has little effect on the improvement of the energy resilience level of the province; when the energy resilience level of neighboring provinces is 1-1.4, it has a positive spatial correlation with the energy resilience level of the province, and the synergistic development of the provinces can improve the energy resilience level together.(4)GDP, the number of employees, the number of employees enrolled in basic pension and medical insurance, and the number of patent applications in high-tech industries have a more significant impact on China's energy resilience, while China's energy resilience is affected by the interaction of multiple factors.